RALEIGH – Census data released this week suggest that Fayetteville will lose political power at the state capital to North Carolina’s faster-growing major metro areas.
Meanwhile, politicians and political observers are examining the data to figure out how the numbers will translate into new or lost power for the Republican and Democratic parties in Raleigh and in Washington in next year’s elections.
The new census data show that Fayetteville grew more slowly than Raleigh, Charlotte and other major metro areas over the past 10 years. By law, a new census is conducted every 10 years to make sure the nation’s residents are equally represented. Areas with greater population get more lawmakers, and those with smaller populations get fewer.
Fayetteville and rural communities have had slower – and sometimes stagnant – growth, the census data show. Some areas, including parts of Fayetteville, lost population.
Cumberland County had 319,431 people in the April 2010 national census, a 5.4 percent increase over 2000. Other parts of the state saw much more rapid growth.
The state’s 9.5 million people are served by 50 state senators, 120 state House members and 13 representatives..
Cumberland County has five state House members and two state senators. The new numbers indicate that Cumberland County is entitled to only four House members.
Federal law also requires portions of the state, including Cumberland County, to comply with the federal Voting Rights Act – certain areas that have a history of racism in its election practices must have districts designed so a racial minority has a viable chance of winning a seat.
GOP stands to benefit
In practice, the population shifts and the drawing of the new districts gives the party in control of the legislature – the Republicans, this year – a chance to help itself and hurt its opponents.
Voters can be packed into some areas or spread across other districts, based on their partisan voting habits, with an eye to affecting majority control in Congress and the legislature.
Ten years ago, the Democrats were in control of the legislature and the map-making. They drew maps designed to make it harder for Republicans to win seats in the legislature and in Raleigh, and to make it easier for Democrats.
North Carolina has seven Democratic representatives and six Republicans. The Republicans may attempt to adjust district lines, based on voting tendencies in various areas, to reduce the total number of Democrats in Congress. They also could attempt to weaken support for Democratic legislators.
But Republican legislative leaders this year have said they would be fair in designing the districts.
If they choose to use political motives in their map-making process, they may target Democratic Congressmen Brad Miller of Raleigh, Mike McIntyre of Lumberton and Larry Kissell of Biscoe. They also may attempt to add Republicans to the district served by newly elected Republican Renee Ellmers of Harnett County – she defeated an incumbent Democrat in an extremely close election.
McIntyre, Kissell and Ellmers represent Fayetteville, and Miller grew up in Fayetteville.
There is no guarantee that new lines will help the Republican Party, said political science professor Andrew Taylor of N.C. State University.
“Yes, we have a 7-6 Democratic majority at the moment, but that might have as much to do with incumbency effects and the kind of Democrats that are running for U.S. House in North Carolina than any kind of currently Democratic bias in the map,” Taylor said.
In the state legislature, Cumberland County has seven lawmakers. It likely will lose one.
Redistricting rules
The map-making rules for the legislature must comply with the Voting Rights Act, the one-man, one-vote rule and a concept called the whole county provision: As much as is practical, a legislative district must not cross county lines.
In practice, the state is divided into clusters to make all those rules work together. Following those rules likely will cost Cumberland County one of its legislators and may drastically shift the territory of another.
Cumberland County has almost exactly the number of people needed for four state House members, down from 4.5 10 years ago. As a result, it could lose Rep. William Brisson of Dublin. Cumberland County shares him with Bladen County.
Brisson this week filed bills on behalf of people in the Cumberland County portion of his district. One bill would help a neighborhood stop Fayetteville from annexing it; the other would make it easier for a public school to build a shelter for a pet goat for its students.
Brisson said Wednesday he likes his district. But if he has to shift, he would work with that during the elections in 2012. He said he had friends in other neighboring counties.
Cumberland County has too many people for a single state senator, but not enough for two. So it shares one of the two senators who represent it, Republican Wesley Meredith of Fayetteville, with Bladen County.
Cumberland and Bladen County, under the new population data, combined don’t have enough people for two senators. An adjustment will have to be made.
Meredith said Thursday that he prefers his current district and serving Bladen County along with Cumberland, but with his rural upbringing and his landscaping business, he’s prepared to represent any of the rural counties that border Cumberland County.
The population figures suggest that Cumberland County would most easily be paired with Sampson County to the east. Cumberland and Sampson could form a two-county cluster with almost the exact number of residents required for two state senators.
That creates a problem for the Republicans: Sampson County has a Republican incumbent, Brent Jackson. Both Jackson and Meredith defeated strong Democrats in the 2010 elections.
The legislators in control of the map making generally are reluctant to force incumbents of their own party to run against each other, although sometimes the rules make that unavoidable.
Cumberland County also is served by Democratic state Sen. Eric Mansfield of Fayetteville. Mansfield’s district is a Voting Rights Act district, designed to help minorities win seats in the legislature. It’s likely impossible under the rules to combine it with Sampson County, so Jackson and Meredith could find themselves in a Republican primary in 2012.
“I would not be opposed to a primary, if that’s what it comes to,” Jackson said Thursday. “I’ve met Eric and I like Eric, and I like Wesley, and we would work it out in a congenial way, I’m sure.”
Published: 07:39 AM, Fri Mar 04, 2011
By Paul Woolverton
