The current lineup in the North Carolina’s House delegation is seven Democrats and six Republicans. But for the first time in more than 100 years the GOP has control of both legislative chambers in Raleigh. And that will enable the GOP to write the congressional redistricting plan. It’s very likely that the Republicans’ objective will be to write a plan that is designed to enable them to capture at least two and possibly three of the seats Democrats now hold.
Here’s how it could be achieved. Step one would be to strengthen the hold of freshman Republican Renee Ellmers on her district south of Raleigh. She defeated incumbent Democrat Bob Etheridge by a whisker. The key to helping her solidify control of the district is obvious.
North Carolina has two majority-minority districts, Mel Watt’s 12th District and G.K. Butterfield’s 1st District. These districts, of which there are dozens throughout the nation, are required by the 1982 amendments to the Voting Rights Act. They are frequently the result of racial gerrymandering. Butterfield’s district is far short of the number of people it needs to contain the required number of 710,000 residents. Step two would be to shift minority residents from Ellmer’s district to Butterfield’s.
Just east of Charlotte are two adjoining districts currently represented by Democrats Larry Kissell and Mike McIntyre. Kissell was re-elected with 53 percent of the vote, and McIntyre won with 54 percent. Step three would make two adjustments to these districts that would jeopardize Kissell. First, Democratic strongholds from his district would be added to McIntyre’s district to the east, and then they would be replaced with Republican precincts from Sue Myrick’s strongly Republican district just to the west of Kissell’s district.
The 13th District (parts of Raleigh and Greensboro) is represented by Democrat Brad Miller. He was re-elected with 55 percent of the vote. His district has about 20,000 too many residents, and about a quarter of the district’s residents are African-American. Furthermore, the district adjoins Butterfield’s majority-minority district. Step four would transfer African-American precincts from Miller’s district to Butterfield’s, which will put Miller in jeopardy.
Finally, there’s Heath Shuler’s 11th District here in the mountains. He was re-elected with 54 percent of the vote. Shuler amasses most of his winning margin in Asheville and Buncombe County. Just east of the Buncombe County line lies Rutherford County, which is part of Republican Patrick McHenry’s overwhelmingly Republican 10th District. Step five would extend the 10th into Buncombe County and Asheville. Without those precincts, Shuler can’t win. In addition, McHenry’s district is so heavily Republican that this adjustment could be accomplished without endangering him. Finally, the population base of the 11th will need to be increased. This could be achieved by making further adjustments to McHenry’s district as well as the districts of Virginia Foxx and Brad Miller.
And there you have it. Freshman Renee Ellmers is protected, and Democrats Kissell, Miller, and Shuler are put on life support.The bottom line is this: After more than 100 years in the wilderness, the GOP will have exacted some measure of retribution. It’s called politics.
LeRoy Goldman worked for the federal government from 1964-2001. Readers can reach him at [email protected]
1:58 PM, Mar. 9, 2011
