The state grew by 1.3 percent from 2010 to 2011, but new U.S. Census Bureau estimates show that 44 of the state’s 100 counties — including most in Northwest North Carolina — lost residents.
The state’s economic powerhouses of Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham led the way, contributing almost 45 percent of the state’s growth during the first year since the 2010 census.
The counties that lost people cut wide swaths across the Piedmont, taking in many midsize counties that once formed the core of North Carolina’s textile and furniture industries. They also included many mountain counties that in the past drew an influx of retirees, and a large chunk of counties in the agricultural northeast.
“It is shocking and really quite troubling,” said geographer Keith Debbage, a professor at UNC Greensboro. “It is a reshuffling of the deck of cards. What it is telling you is that cities matter more than ever. In the large, urban economies of the state, you have a more diverse portfolio and wider educational opportunities.”
Most of the losses were small — most counties that lost population decreased by less than 1 percent. But the trend showed a marked change from the 2000 to 2010 period, when only seven counties — most in the northeast — had a population decline.
But most of Northwest North Carolina’s counties lost population from 2010 to 2011.
Counties such as Davidson, Rockingham and Stokes — places that have benefitted from being near the core Triad cities of Winston-Salem, Greensboro and High Point — saw population declines after gains in the 2000-2010 period.
Forsyth County grew by 4,282 people from 2010 to 2011, according to the estimates, reaching a total population of 354,952. The growth rate of 1.2 percent was slightly lower than the state average.
Still, Forsyth ranked 24th among the fastest-growing counties, up from 35th in the 2000-2010 period.
The state’s five most populous counties all improved their growth ranking.
Meanwhile, some suburban counties that had been booming with torrid growth slowed down: Union County, the fastest-growing between 2000 and 2010, fell to ninth place in the 2010-2011 period. Iredell fell from ninth-fastest to 27th.
Closer, Davie County slipped from being in 25th place among fast-growing counties to 35th place.
Debbage said fast-growing suburban areas have been hit harder by foreclosure, while rising gas prices and “livability” are attracting people to the cities.
“One of the things that has happened with this great recession is the re-emergence of cities,” Debbage said. “I have seen it all over the country. You have seen two decades of rampant suburbanization. Now you are seeing a return to old-fashioned urbanization.”
Younger people are leading the way back to the center of the city, Debbage said.
Paul Norby, director of the City-County Planning Board here, said this trend is reflected in updates being made to Forsyth County’s Legacy Plan, the long-range document that guides growth.
“We are thinking that the downtown and the center city should see a quadrupling of population,” Norby said. “People want to be close in to the urban environments.”
While Davie, Watauga and Surry counties showed very slight gains, the estimates show that the other counties of Northwest North Carolina — Davidson, Wilkes, Stokes, Yadkin, Ashe and Alleghany counties — all lost people, the Census Bureau said.
“It’s the declining labor force and employment base of manufacturing jobs,” said Matthew Dolge, executive director of the Piedmont Triad Regional Council, a regional governmental agency. “At some point, folks go where the jobs are. The other thing is that the population of the counties is aging pretty dramatically, so obviously the population is going to decline at some point.”
Geographer Alfred Stuart, one of the co-editors of the North Carolina Atlas, said the trend of decline outside the state’s larger urban areas — and away from beach and mountain resorts — is not likely to reverse itself soon.
“North Carolina has always been unusual in that the population was more dispersed than in some other states,” Stuart said. “That was because the furniture and textile industries were dispersed in rural areas. I think we will become like other states where the growth will be more centralized.”
The Census Bureau said that among the 50 fastest-growing metro areas nationwide over the past decade, only 24 of them were also among the 50 fastest-growing since the 2010 census.
Palm Coast, Fla., the fastest-growing metro area from 2000 to 2010, fell to 55th place from 2010 to 2011. Las Vegas, third on the list from 2000 to 2010, fell to 151st place.
Metro Raleigh ranked fifth nationally in percentage growth from 2010 to 2011, while Charlotte ranked 28th. Winston-Salem was in 161st place for growth, while Greensboro was in 145th place. Durham was in 62nd place.
Fayetteville, not among the 100 fastest-growing metro areas from 2000 to 2010, jumped into 29th place for the 2010-2011 period.
Hoke County, part of the Fayetteville metro area, was the single fastest-growing North Carolina county from 2010 to 2011, leaping ahead almost 5 percent to almost 50,000 people. Hoke was also in eighth place nationally for percentage growth.
A nearby county, Harnett, was in second place in the state with a 4 percent growth rate.
Army base consolidations have brought in more military people to Fort Bragg, and that in turn is spurring growth in the metro Fayetteville area, said Courtney Locus, a spokeswoman for the N.C. Business Military Center, a part of the state community college system.
The consolidation took place in between 2005 and 2011, she said.
“A lot of government contractors that are looking to bid on projects may be looking to create a location in this area as well,” she said.
(Winston-Salem Journal)
By Wesley Young
Published: April 05, 2012
