The Town of Black Mountain’s mayor, Carl Bartlett, believes the U.S. Census Bureau has understated the 2010 population of Black Mountain.
If he is right, the mistake could cost the town, because Census figures help determine sales tax distributions, road money, and federal aid. The Census showed Black Mountain’s population grew by only 4.5 percent from 2000-2010, after growing 38 percent from 1990 to 2000. The 2010 population count was 7,848.
“You always question it (Census figures), but never have I seen it this skewed,” Bartlett said.The town’s planning director, Elizabeth Teague, also thought the number seemed low.She pointed to North Carolina Data Center projections, which estimated the 2009 population at 8,526.
Her own projections put the town’s population at 9,132. Her projections are based upon the 2000 Census, certificates of occupancy for homes issued by the town since then, and average household size.She attributed the high growth rate in the 1990s to annexation, as well as natural growth, but said the town had very little annexation in the 2000s.“Even so, it’s curious it (the 2010 Census figure) would be so far below what the state data center estimates,” she said.
Teague predicted the town would challenge the figure, and said she would prepare a report for the March 14 board of aldermen meeting.Lisa Cochrane, a spokesperson for the U.S. Census Bureau, said the figure will not be revised unless an official challenge is filed and then approved.She said other towns have begun to inquire about the challenge process, but that there was no indication how many challenges there might be this year. State data is being released in waves, and many state numbers have not been released yet.
After the 2000 Census, 1,180 problems were identified out of 39,000 jurisdictions, but corrections only resulted in a net gain in population of about 2,700 people.
The Census figures have a big impact on the amount of money that flows into local towns, Dave Abernathy, a geography and Geographic Information System (GIS) professor at Warren Wilson College, said.For that reason, many towns will scrutinize the numbers.
“The potential undercount for particular regions… has long been a concern swirling around the Census,” he said. “The Census Bureau goes to great lengths to be as accurate as possible, but of course can never be completely accurate.”Government agencies aren’t the only ones who rely on the information, he said. The figures are used by:
• Businesses looking at where to locate.
• Legislatures redrawing districts.
• Local and state planners trying to anticipate future growth.
• Transportation departments planning road projects.
• Academics researching trends and other issues.
“All these things are dictated by how many people there are and where,” Abernathy said.
12:49 PM, Mar. 8, 2011
Written by
Mark Vanderhoff
