Redistricting: Just Down the Road (NC DataNet)
Ferrel Guillory and Lewis McCorkle
The state legislators elected in 2010 will have the job of drawing new congressional and legislative district lines in mid-2011. In addition to the economic recession that weighed so heavily on state budgeting in the recent legislative session, this political reality creates the context of both Democratic and Republican strategy and decision making in the General Assembly and in their preparations for next year’s campaigns.
Another reality will also shape redistricting: both the growth and shifting of our state’s population. Through this decade, the metropolitanization of North Carolina intensified. As a result, the prospect is for Wake and Mecklenburg counties, as well as for neighboring counties in their regions, to gain additional seats in the state House and Senate.
Highlights:
Wake County has grown by nearly 50 percent. Thus, as the accompanying chart shows, it will qualify for 11.73 House seats and 4.89 Senate seats. Wake is likely to gain two House seats and one Senate seat. Neighboring Durham (23 percent growth) and Johnston (43 percent) are also positioned to gain representation, either full seats or greater voting influence in districts.
Mecklenburg County has grown 31 percent, while nearby Union has grown 70 percent and Cabarrus 40 percent. Mecklenburg qualifies for at least one and perhaps two House seats, while Union and Cabarrus also are positioned to gain legislative strength. Indeed, as this metro area illustrates, some legislative battles may arise within metro areas over how to assign voters between core counties and their suburbs.
The counties in the Triad have gained in population, but all at a lower rate than the state as a whole. Therefore, Guilford, Forsyth and their neighboring counties will face the prospect of attempting to hold their own current legislative representation.
The metro area centered around Wilmington also appears positioned to gain representation: Brunswick has grown by 50 percent, Pender 34 percent and New Hanover 23 percent. While Cumberland County appears to have lost ground in its legislative share, nearby Harnett and Hoke counties have both gained.
